Sports betting calculation method: everything you need to know about the profitability calculations of sports betting

Managing to win winnings thanks to your sports betting, it can't be improvised! Indeed, to become virtuosos of prognostications, a good knowledge of sports is, of course, an essential asset.

However, there are also other factors that can affect your expectation of winnings in the field of sports betting. And on this point, the math people have sacred advantages!

Indeed, their dexterity to add, subtract, divide and statistic is very useful for them to place good predictions. In this article guide , we are going to introduce you to two very useful operations for calculate the profitability of your sports betting . So, revise your math lessons since this method of sports betting calculation could prove miraculous in your quest for winnings.

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How to calculate the return on a bet?

In this part, our experts will explain how to calculate exactly the return of a sports bet, but also calculate your profits or odds and probabilities.

The sports betting calculation of the yield

To find out if a bet is worth trying, there is a simple technique that consists of calculate the return on your bets . This sports betting calculation will allow you to get a precise idea of the profits or losses that you can generate with your bets. Thus, you will know exactly whether the bet you want to place will be profitable for you or not.

The return of a bet is calculated in this way :

• The sports rating = C
• The yield = R
• The profit = P
• The bet = M

► R = C – 1, all multiplied by 100, in order to obtain a percentage result. The final calculation amounts to multiplying the bet by the yield to find the profit, i.e. P = M x R.

In order to allow you to use this calculation, we will present it to you in a sports betting simulation .

You think that the Montreal Canadiens will win the match with a odds of 1.85. Thus, the bet yield is worth 85%, because R = 1.85 - 1 = 0.85 or 85%.

If you decide to bet the sum of $10 during this meeting and your prediction turns out to be correct, your profit will be $8.5, because P = 10 x 0.85 and therefore $8.5. Thanks to this simple calculation, you will be able to get an exact idea of the profit that you will be able to realize with your bet and therefore to find out if the latter is worth trying.

And to better manage your budget, you can even use the Kelly method to find out what will be the ideal amount to bet or the lyric strategy to play only with your winnings.

Calculate your profit

When you make a sports bet, it is absolutely necessary to know how to calculate the profit that you will be able to derive from it. More generally, it makes it possible to know exactly where you are going win at sports betting and what are your results over time.

A good bettor must indeed know if he is in the red or if he is in the profit, over a long enough period to judge if it is profitable.

Here's how to calculate your profit on a prognosis :

• 🔎 Profit = (Odds x Bet) - Bet.

For example , if you bet 100 CAD on a two-way odds, here is the calculation :

• Profit = (100 x 2) - 100 = 100 CAD. If your bet turns out to be a winner, you will therefore receive $100 CAD.

To calculate its long-term profit :

• 🔎 Total Profit = Total winnings - Total Bets.

For example , if you have won three bets that have earned you a total of 168 CAD, and you have placed a total of five bets with stakes of 20 CAD each :

• Total profit = 168 - (5 x 20) = 168 - 100 = 68 CAD. So you have made a total profit of 68 CAD on your 5 bets!

Our experts advise calculating your total profit only when you have enough data to do so. We advise you to calculate this once you have placed at least 5 sports bets.

Odds and probability

The odds that are determined by the bookmakers are actually the representation of a probability. That is why the lower the odds turn out to be, the more likely it is that the given event will actually happen.

A rating at 15 is obviously more complicated to occur than a rating at 1.30. The odds actually represent the exact opposite of the probability .

• 🔎 Odds = 1/Probability ;
• 🔎 Probability = 1/Odds.

For example , if you take a match where the odds are set at 2.00 by the bookmaker, there are :

• Probabilitý = 1/2= 0.5. We multiply this result by 100 to have the probability as a percentage, that is to say 0.5 x 100 = 50% probability that the event will occur.

It is very interesting to know this ratio between the odds and the probability, because it allows you to know exactly what chances you have for the match and the selection you want to happen.

As we will see later, this also makes it possible to detecting bad reviews from bookmakers and take advantage of small errors in odds.

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Mathematical formula sports betting: The importance of ROI calculation

📋 Definition of the sports betting KING : The ROI represents a very interesting statistical data for bettors who play seriously and who see the predictions as an investment. ROI, or Return On Investment ( Return on investment ), simply allows you to measure your profit according to your bets and your winnings. It is important to calculate it, like a real investor, if you want to know how to win at sports betting.

📌 Why use the KING ? Many bettors play completely blind and don't really know if they are winning or losing in the long term. The KING sports betting makes it possible to know precisely which are the gains or losses of a specific period and more simply, if you are winning or losing money. When you place a lot of predictions, it is very easy to get lost and that is why it is important.

The ROI is a statistical data that is expressed as a percentage. It is very relevant when used over the long term. Our experts advise to have a base of a minimum of 200 sports bets to be able to start analyzing your Return on Investment. This allows you to remove the luck factor and see if you are a good long-term bettor, if you have really understood how to win at sports betting.

Here is the formula to calculate your sports betting ROI :

• 🔎 ROI = (profits/cumulative bets) x 100.

For example , if you managed to get 120 euros in profits with a total of 10 sports bets and $600 in cumulative bets.

• Here is your KING : 120 / 600 = 0.2. As a percentage, the ROI will be 0.2 x 100 = 20%!

As long as your percentage of ROI is positive , you are well in the profit! It is important to know the evolution of it each week to know if your sports betting strategy is to be reviewed or not!

You can use a ROI sports betting calculator to find out more quickly. It is enough to enter each of your bets in it to have a curve that represents your KING.

Calculate the confidence index of your bets

Now that you know the relationship between probabilities and odds, you need to understand why confidence indices are very important.

Indeed, it is according to these that bookmakers can determine the probabilities, then the odds. It is also thanks to them that you will be able to find bet Values, that is to say odds that have been estimated incorrectly by the bookmakers, which should be lower.

Calculate the bookmaker's confidence index

To understand the system of probabilities , you do not need to have knowledge of mathematics. You just have to observe and play logically. First of all, it is very interesting to focus on the bookmakers' confidence index .

The bookmakers, or rather the traders who are in the offices of the sports betting site on which you are registered, determine the odds of an event by taking into account a lot of data and determining a confidence index.

As we have seen in our article, the odds are a probability. That is why bookmakers first of all determine the probability of an event to set the odds.

To calculate the confidence index, the bookmakers delve precisely into the event in question, by analyzing the two teams , the two players or simply the protagonists of the bet in question.

The bookmaker analyzes :

• 📈 The shape of the teams ;
• ✅ Statistics and old confrontations ;
• 📰 The news and latest information around the event ;
• 🤕 Injuries and absences, until the moment of the announcement of the composition ;
• 💬 The latest statements from the players or coaches

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As a rule, thanks to all these data, bookmakers manage to determine a percentage of a team's chance of winning , which leads to the development of the rating.

Be aware that in the best sports betting sites, the people who set the odds are assigned to a particular sport. They are real experts in their field, they know all the information in real time. You have to put yourself in their shoes to try to find their mistakes!

Also, the bookmakers adjust the odds and their confidence index according to the bets placed by the players of the site. If they notice that a selection attracts players abnormally, they will tend to increase or decrease the odds to limit their risk of loss . It's you against the bookmakers and everyone is looking to have the best confidence index and therefore the least risk.

Calculate your own confidence index

The other mathematical method to win at sports betting used by experienced bettors consists of calculate the confidence index of their bet .

This index expressed in the form of a percentage will allow you to get an idea of the amount that it will be useful for you to wager during a bet. Thanks to this option, you will be able to limit your losses to the maximum and adapt your bets depending on the return of your bet.

If you want to evaluate your chances of winning and calculate your confidence index according to the bookmaker, you can follow this table :

Ratings higher than	1.11	1.25	1.43	1.67	2	2.5	3.03	5	10
Probability of winning	90%	80%	70%	60%	50%	40%	30%	20%	10%

To do this, you will still need to follow some tips. First, you need to have certain knowledge in the sport or sporting event that you want to play on.

For this, we advise you to focus on a single discipline if you are just starting out. For those who wish to go further, never exceed 3 sports otherwise your analyzes will be less accurate.

With this sports betting statistical method, you will have to collect a certain amount of information that will expand your analysis. Injuries, suspensions, context, stakes, weather conditions, classification, calendar, everything is good to take to calculate your confidence index!

Subsequently, you may also be interested in the statistics . For example, a history of confrontations can give you good information, as can the observation of previous encounters.

Finally, we suggest that you especially rely on your feeling. Have confidence in yourself and your confidence index will be more accurate as a result. And if you are ever unsure of your appreciation, there are websites that calculate your chances of winning. Enjoy it!

Discover the role of a sports betting software for bookmakers

If you have assimilated the functioning of the odds, you know that they reflect a certain probability sports betting. If the odds of a sporting outcome are low, inevitably, the probability that this event will come true is high.

To imagine our words, you will know that the victory of Rafael Nadal listed at 1.50 will have a better chance of happening than the victory of Stan Wawrinka listed at 5. This is the basic operation of the statistical software sports betting used by bookmakers.

Reel sports betting software is actually a program based on an algorithm that is designed by specialists to be able to compare and take into account a lot of data on a particular match. It simply helps the players in the decision-making in pre-match or live!

• 📍 In pre-match : analysis and calculation of probabilities based on statistics on the meeting, old confrontations, injuries, team form, pressure and many other data ;
• 📍 Live : recording and analysis of data such as possession, strikes, cards and warnings, injuries, the number of passes, the number of dangerous attacks or even expected goals.

Of course, if you use a sports betting software, you will have to additionally use a sports betting bankroll management software .

It would make absolutely no sense to know when and how to place a bet if you don't know which bet to put and how to manage your bankroll. It is essential that you place a precise percentage of your capital in order not to take any risks and to be as efficient as possible in the long term.

All these software and sports betting calculator can be found quite easily on the internet. Sometimes paid and sometimes free, they make Canadian bettors happy on a daily basis.

This is one of the keys, use a mathematical formula for sports betting and analysis of sports betting statistics to really put yourself in the shoes of the bookmakers and seize the best opportunities.

How to be profitable at sports betting? Our techniques and advice

To learn how to win at sports betting, it is not enough just to use a sports betting bet calculator or to use a mathematical method to win at sports betting. It would be too simple! Our experts have several tips to give you so that you can succeed at best!

Taking advantage of bookmakers' bonuses

The best bookmakers usually offer players quite tempting bonuses that can really make a difference.

It is important to take them into account simply because they allow you to boost your bankroll without even having to win sports betting. It actually exists several types of bonuses that you can hope to reach thanks to our selection of sites in Canada :

• 🥇 Welcome bonus : this is an offer usually offered when you register, which allows you to boost your first deposit or even see your first bet refunded. This will offer you the chance to start your adventure with a much larger balance ;
• 🥈 Regular offers : generally, on the websites of our partners, you will be able to find a "Promotions" section which often offers several opportunities to win cashback, deposit bonuses or even Free bets (free bets) ;
• 🥉 Loyalty program : if you are a bettor who plays for the long term, your turnover will be quite significant and you will therefore have the chance to be rather well seen by the bookmaker. You could become a VIP player and get a lot of advantages, such as the possibility of placing higher bets or even receiving exclusive bonuses!

You should especially not take bookmakers' bonuses lightly when you bet. This is simply a chance for inflate your bankroll without even having to win at sports betting. This will allow you to get free bets and continue on your momentum.

Making simple bets

Of course, it is easy to understand that the probability of sports betting on a single is much higher than a combined bet. Our experts advise you to always bet on unique selections in order to maximize your chances .

Whatever your gambling strategy, whether you bet on high or low odds, you will have more chances in the long run to be a winner by betting on singles. This is one of the methods to find out how to win at sports betting.

Indeed, each bet involves risks, the goal is to get as close as possible to the real confidence index and to be right in the long term. If you add one or more other matches to the one you have actually analyzed, you will multiply the risks and it can become very complicated.

No professional bettor places combo bets, or else they use a sports betting betting calculator to avoid risking too much of their bankroll on a high-risk bet.

Betting on draws

Draws are a great option for internet bettors. Indeed, it is a simple bet and in a match that seems quite tight from a probability point of view, you will have 1 in 3 chances to win the bet .

By analyzing some matches well, we realize that some matches are more likely to end in a draw. To find out, you need to analyze :

• The history of the last confrontations ;
• The number of draws by the team over the last 10 games ;
• The number of draws the team had in the previous season ;
• The context of the meeting and the issues ;
• The current standings of the two teams.

You will see that sometimes the odds of draws are very interesting. For example, when a team draws more than 15 games over a 38-game season, it will be very interesting to follow it all season long! There is almost a 40% chance in every match that the team will draw, while bookmakers usually estimate the probability of a draw at 30% ! So you have a better probability than sports betting sites.

Other tips to win at sports betting

To finish on our article, we would like to give you some other tips for winning at sports betting , long-term. Our teams are simply experts in the field, have learned a lot of things during their experiences, we want to share them with you now.

Our tips for winning at sports betting :

• ✔️ Limit the number of bets : you must only bet on matches that you have analyzed completely, with seriousness. This is an investment and you should favor few bets, but quality ;
• ❌ Do not "play the odds" : be careful of the odds on which the bookmakers are trying to direct you. It is not necessary to necessarily choose a rating that has the most chances of passing (1.20, 1.50) to win. Only your analysis will determine if the odds and probability are correct ;
• ✔️ Sports betting simulation : we advise you first of all to simulate with all the necessary tools your betting and position taking. This will allow you to calculate if your strategy is profitable and if you are really made for it, before investing with real money ;
• ✔️ Bet a percentage of your bankroll : you must even before betting set a percentage of your bankroll that you are willing to risk on a single bet. Generally, our experts advise betting 2 to 5% of your capital on a bet ;
• ❌ Do not stop working : do you want to become a professional bettor? Know that few players succeed because it requires seriousness and an irreproachable state of mind. You have to see this as an investment to start, but not as a profession. Your financial security is your priority, so you should not put sports betting as a priority for now ;
• ✔️ Follow tipsters : if you simply want to invest in sports betting but you don't have time for precise analyses, we advise you to follow a professional bettor. In exchange for a small subscription, some tipsters offer their services and offer you their strategy, especially with a sports betting software, you will only have to follow them with the right bet!

We could still provide you with advice for a very long time. As your adventure progresses on sports betting sites, you will always learn new things . All the bettors have been there, even the 5% who actually succeed!